UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs Jacare Betting tips and fight odds

Jan Blachowicz always had elite striking, as his jab is excellent, middle kicks are dangerous, and his kickboxing combinations are diverse and fluent. His biggest issues were cardio and wrestling, but as he showed in few recent bouts that he fixed holes in his game.

Jan managed to beat Jared Cannonier & Jimi Manuwa at 15-minute distance fight, but obviously he’s not a cardio machine… and neither is Ronaldo Souza.

Jacare isn’t the most technical striker, but he’s extremely durable and powerful, he’s one of the guys you almost have to kill to stop them. Souza lands dangerous hooks, body shots and head kicks. At the age of 40, Souza slows down a lot over the course of fight, but he’s great at fighting in zombie mode, when experience and grit plays bigger factor than cardio.

The Brazilian has outstanding bjj skills, but unluckily for him, he lacks wrestling to put opponents on the ground. I believe Blachowicz will be able to stuff most takedowns. And I don’t think one takedown would be enough to just submit Jan.

I think the fight will stay on the feet, and the Pole is much faster and diverse fighter. Jacare hits like a truck, but Jan has granite chin and 15 cm reach advantage. I think he will be able to either win by TKO, or win at least 3 rounds – it’s possible that championship rounds could end in Souza’s favour.

I’m not crazy about 1.61 moneyline odds, but I believe 1.72 for double chance – Jan Blachowicz by KO or decision is interesting, as I think it’s almost impossible to submit Jacare. I think he will win by knockout, but I’m not convinced enough to take 2.40 on that outcome

My pick: Jan Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ or decision
Ohmbet odds: 1.72 (implied probability = 58%)
My probability: 65%

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacaré, curtsey by Ohmbet.com

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