UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs Hooker Betting Tips
Dustin Poirier is a truly versatile striker. He fights mostly in southpaw stance, he likes to feint punches, double the jabs and combines them with kicks. The Diamond got the ability to keep the proper distance and land devastating cross.
Dustin feels good in exchanging in the pocket, as he mixes hooks with deadly uppercuts. The problem is his chin isn’t made of steel.
Daniel Hooker is the bigger man, a kickboxer who likes to land heavy leg kicks. His boxing is decent, but technically he’s not on Poirier’s level. That being said, The Hangman is tough as nails, fights till the last drop of blood and got some power in his hands.
Poirier will most likely land much more strikes, but he must fight carefully – if he loses a cool head and starts a brawl, Hooker’s chances to win will drastically improve.
Both of them are strikers who time to time look for a takedown, but I think Poirier is the one who decides whether the fight goes to the ground or not. I doubt if he can inflict serious damage there, but that could be a good opportunity to recover if he gets rocked.
The thing that concerns me if Poirier’s psyche – he’s coming off dominant loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov and I’m not sure if he fully regained his self-believe. On the other hand, The Hangman won – a controversial, but still – most the important fight of his life, as he beat Paul Felder after 25 minute war.
Dustin Poirier is a much better fighter, but as I said before, I’m not sure about his mentality. Hooker got iron chin, 8 cm height and reach advantage and I won’t be shocked if he hurts Poirier with left hook counter. I agree with the money line Dustin 1.46 – 2.72 Dan odds.
I think The Diamond will start the fight carefully and will try to find his rhythm. Hooker is not a pillow fisted featherweight, Max Holloway and Poirier most likely won’t try to rip his head off since 1st minute.
I expect Dustin to the win in the championship rounds, but since money line is too low for me, I decided to bet over 2.5 rounds. I won’t be shocked if the fight ends early, but I think that’s the most valuable bet.
My pick: Over 2.5 rounds
Ohmbet odds: 1.81 (implied probability = 55%)
My probability: 60%
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Article written by Maciej Grochowski
