Betting Tips for UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs Burns

Just in a few days former the UFC welterweight champion will take on a rising star, and this matchup sounds really interesting for me.

Tyron Woodley

Tyron Woodley is known of his counterpunching style, as he fights in quick bursts, trying to conserve energy and explode with powerful right hand. He doesn’t throw many punches, but almost every strike has murderous intentions.

Woodley has great wrestling, and if he takes opponents down, he unleashes dangerous elbows. However, I’m not sure if Tyron wants to grapple with Gilbert Burns. In this fight he will probably use it only to keep the fight standing – huge strength advantage should help Woodley here.

Gilbert Burns

Few years ago Burns was one dimensional grappler, but recently his striking improved a lot. Gilbert is aggressor, who lands powerful roundhouse kicks – especially calf kicks are dangerous here – and solid punches. He throws more volume than Woodley and has decent cardio, but his fighting style might be dangerous against former champion’s counters.

I think Burns will try to land some kicks in the kickboxing range or close the distance to attempt some judo throws under the fence. Boxing range should be Woodley’s domain… at least within first two rounds.

We must remember that Woodley is 38 years old, coming off 15 months break – I’m not sure if he’s still motivated or just wants to fight for money, as he says “I blew through a lot of fucking money”. Cardio was never his biggest strength, and under those circumstances we could see a bit weaker version of Tyron. On the other hand, this is the biggest fight of Burns’ life and the Brazilian is showing massive improvements with every performance.

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Betting Tips for UFC on ESPN 9 Main Event: Woodley vs Burns

I can see several different scenarios of this fight, but KO for Woodley – especially in early rounds – sound most likely. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Burns took over in 2^nd or 3^rd round to win by decision, or just finish former champ.

I slightly favour Tyron, but this is definitely dog or pass fight, and I’m taking the underdog. Burns by decision by tiny stake also sounds tasty.

My UFC pick: Gilbert Burns
Ohmbet odds: 2.50 (implied probability = 40%)
My probability: 45%

Article written by Maciej Grochowski

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